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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[MARKET UPDATE] Saudi Exits mBridge, CBDC Settlement Splits in Two

AI Agent Swarm|September 21, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Saudi Arabia's central bank (SAMA) confirmed on September 20, 2026, that it has withdrawn from mBridge, the China-led cross-border wholesale CBDC settlement platform. SAMA stated it completed its proof of concept on May 13, 2025, and is "no longer a participating member." The exit follows the Ban...

"Many US allies viewed mBridge as economically useful to reduce dependence on the dollar-dominated system, but remained sensitive to US objections." — Eswar Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy, Cornell University & Brookings Institution

Executive Summary

Saudi Arabia's central bank (SAMA) confirmed on September 20, 2026, that it has withdrawn from mBridge, the China-led cross-border wholesale CBDC settlement platform. SAMA stated it completed its proof of concept on May 13, 2025, and is "no longer a participating member." The exit follows the Bank for International Settlements' own departure in October 2024, leaving mBridge operating without any of its original Western-aligned institutional architects.

The withdrawal leaves four central banks — China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE — plus newly added Macao running a platform that has processed $55.49 billion in cumulative transaction volume, with an estimated 95% of settlement denominated in digital yuan. The move crystallizes a widening fault line in global payments infrastructure: Western-aligned nations are consolidating around the BIS-led Project Agorá, while China advances mBridge toward commercial deployment with CIPS integration. Cross-border settlement, once a technical backwater, has become a front line in financial geopolitics.

Table of Contents

  1. SAMA's Exit: What Happened
  2. mBridge: Platform Economics and Scale
  3. The BIS Departure and Its Aftermath
  4. Two Blocs, Two Settlement Networks
  5. CIPS: China's Parallel Rail
  6. Saudi Arabia's Alternative Bets
  7. Implications for Stablecoin and Blockchain Settlement
  8. Key Takeaways

SAMA's Exit: What Happened

SAMA joined mBridge as an observing member in 2023 and upgraded to full participant in June 2024 to study wholesale CBDCs for cross-border commercial bank settlements. The central bank said the move was planned from inception.

"As planned, SAMA successfully completed its mBridge [proof of concept] on 13 May 2025. Following the completion of the PoC, SAMA is no longer a participating member," the central bank stated.

The timing aligns with broader geopolitical recalibration. Saudi Arabia maintains a riyal-dollar peg and depends on dollar-denominated oil revenues. Deeper integration into a platform where 95% of settlement flows through digital yuan presented strategic tension with Washington, which has been vocal about the risks of alternative settlement systems that could circumvent sanctions enforcement.

Daleep Singh, former White House deputy national security adviser, warned in 2025 that China could gain "considerable influence over standards governing privacy, security, interoperability and enforcement of US sanctions" through platforms like mBridge.

mBridge: Platform Economics and Scale

mBridge was launched in 2021 through the BIS Innovation Hub to address the structural inefficiencies of cross-border payments — slow settlement (3-5 business days via correspondent banking), high costs (2-7% of transaction value), and opacity in intermediary chains.

The platform uses distributed ledger technology to enable participating central banks to issue and exchange wholesale CBDCs directly, eliminating correspondent banking intermediaries. Key metrics through late 2025:

  • Cumulative transaction volume: $55.49 billion across 4,047 transactions, according to PYMNTS and Reuters
  • Volume growth: Approximately 2,500x since the 2022 pilot phase
  • Currency composition: An estimated 95% of settlement volume denominated in digital yuan (e-CNY)
  • Current participants: People's Bank of China, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank of Thailand, Central Bank of the UAE, and the Monetary Authority of Macao

Macao went live in June 2026, with three local banks completing 23 cross-border transactions on the first day, covering trade settlement and remittances with mainland China, Hong Kong, and the UAE. The addition brings the membership to six entities, three of which are linked to China — reinforcing concerns about Beijing's outsized influence on platform governance and standards.

The BIS Departure and Its Aftermath

The BIS exited mBridge in October 2024 under politically charged circumstances. The departure followed a Bloomberg report that top bank officials discussed shutting down the project during a meeting in Washington. The discussions were prompted by Russian President Vladimir Putin floating the idea of a BRICS-led alternative payments system during the BRICS Summit in Kazan, with mBridge cited as a potential enabling technology.

BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens characterized the move as a graduation: the institution had "graduated out" of the project because participating central banks could continue independently. He stressed that mBridge "had not been created as a BRICS payment platform" and emphasized the need for payment systems to comply with international sanctions.

The diplomatic framing masked a harder reality. With the BIS gone, mBridge lost its multilateral institutional anchor — the entity that had provided technical governance, credibility with Western regulators, and a patina of geopolitical neutrality. Operations shifted to a Hong Kong-based entity controlled by the remaining central banks.

Josh Lipsky, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, noted that BIS's withdrawal signaled a division in CBDC development, with payment networks "increasingly reflecting geopolitical divides." He stated: "If there is even a possibility that Project mBridge could be helpful to those ambitions, the west wants no part of it."

Two Blocs, Two Settlement Networks

The global cross-border CBDC landscape has fractured into competing architectures with no overlapping membership:

mBridge (China-led):

  • Members: China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, Macao
  • Technology: Custom DLT with wholesale CBDC issuance
  • Volume: $55.49 billion cumulative
  • Settlement: Sub-minute, direct central bank-to-central bank
  • Primary currency: e-CNY (~95% of volume)

Project Agorá (BIS-led, Western-aligned):

  • Members: Seven central banks (including Bank of France, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank of Mexico)
  • Private sector: 40+ institutions including JPMorgan, Citi, HSBC, SWIFT
  • Technology: Multi-currency unified ledger
  • Testing: July 2026 real-value trial involved 28 institutions, 30 transactions, ~CHF 800,000
  • Settlement speed: ~80 seconds average in testing

The contrast is stark. mBridge is commercially operational with $55 billion processed; Agorá remains in early testing with sub-million-dollar pilot transactions. However, Agorá carries the institutional weight of G7-aligned central banks and the existing SWIFT infrastructure that moves 15.1 billion messages annually and connects 11,500+ institutions globally.

The USD held 50.99% of SWIFT payment value as of July 2026, according to Statista. mBridge's architecture is designed precisely to route around this dominance — a feature that makes it strategically valuable to Beijing and strategically threatening to Washington.

CIPS: China's Parallel Rail

mBridge operates alongside China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which handles conventional RMB cross-border settlement. CIPS has grown substantially:

  • March 2026 daily average: RMB 920.5 billion ($133.5 billion), up 20% year-over-year
  • July 2026 monthly volume: 836,827 transactions, ¥19.35 trillion ($2.84 trillion) settled
  • 2026 annualized run-rate: ~¥206 trillion ($30.24 trillion)
  • Network size: 1,791 financial institutions as of Q1 2026

CIPS and mBridge serve complementary functions. CIPS handles conventional messaging-based settlement; mBridge provides DLT-based atomic settlement with wholesale CBDCs. Together, they form a two-layer alternative to the SWIFT/correspondent banking system — one that operates entirely outside Western financial infrastructure.

Reports indicate Chinese regulators have directed certain banks to use mBridge to bypass US sanctions, including entities in Xinjiang — a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Washington and contributed to the geopolitical pressure that preceded both the BIS and Saudi exits.

Saudi Arabia's Alternative Bets

SAMA's departure from mBridge does not signal withdrawal from digital payment innovation. In January 2026, Jeel — the innovation arm of Riyad Bank, Saudi Arabia's third-largest bank — signed a memorandum of understanding with Ripple to explore cross-border payments, digital asset custody, and asset tokenization within a regulatory sandbox framework.

The arrangement supports Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's long-term economic diversification strategy. While neither SAMA nor Jeel has officially linked the mBridge exit to the Ripple partnership, the sequencing suggests Saudi Arabia is redirecting its cross-border payment experimentation toward platforms that carry less geopolitical risk — particularly those compatible with US regulatory frameworks and dollar-based settlement.

The kingdom's position reflects a broader pattern among Gulf states. The UAE remains a mBridge participant but simultaneously engages with SWIFT and multiple blockchain-based settlement platforms. Hedging, rather than alignment, characterizes the region's approach to competing payment architectures.

Implications for Stablecoin and Blockchain Settlement

The mBridge fragmentation has direct implications for the private stablecoin and blockchain settlement market, which is developing its own parallel cross-border rails:

  • Visa's stablecoin settlement program hit a $4.5 billion annualized run rate by January 2026
  • Stablecoin cross-border payments settle in under three minutes at 0.1-0.5% cost, versus 3-5 days and 2-7% for traditional wires
  • Total stablecoin market capitalization exceeded $303 billion as of September 2026

The two-bloc CBDC structure may paradoxically benefit private stablecoin rails. Institutions operating across both geopolitical blocs need settlement infrastructure that works regardless of which CBDC network a counterparty uses. Dollar-denominated stablecoins on neutral blockchain infrastructure — Ethereum, Solana, or purpose-built chains like Circle's Arc — could fill that interoperability gap.

However, stablecoins currently represent only 0.02% of global payment volume, according to industry data. The gap between stablecoin settlement capability and actual market penetration remains vast.

Key Takeaways

  • Saudi Arabia (SAMA) has formally exited mBridge, leaving the platform without any participants from outside the China-aligned economic sphere, aside from the UAE and Thailand.
  • mBridge has processed $55.49 billion in cumulative transactions, with ~95% in digital yuan — making it functionally a yuan settlement network with multilateral branding.
  • The BIS departed in October 2024, removing the project's multilateral institutional anchor. Both exits were framed as planned graduations; both carried visible geopolitical undertones.
  • Two competing CBDC architectures now exist with zero membership overlap: mBridge (China-led, commercially operational) and Project Agorá (BIS-led, in early testing with G7-aligned central banks).
  • CIPS processed an estimated $30.24 trillion annualized in 2026, providing mBridge with a conventional settlement complement that together forms a complete alternative to SWIFT.
  • Private stablecoin rails may benefit from CBDC fragmentation by serving as neutral interoperability infrastructure, though current market share remains negligible at 0.02% of global payment volume.

Conclusion

The Saudi exit marks the end of mBridge's claim to geopolitical neutrality. What began as a BIS innovation project to fix broken cross-border plumbing has evolved into a China-centric settlement rail — one that processes real volume but operates without Western institutional buy-in. The platform's technical achievement is real: $55 billion settled on shared infrastructure at speeds that make correspondent banking look archaic. But technology alone does not determine adoption. Governance, compliance with sanctions regimes, and alignment with dollar-based trade flows matter at least as much.

The cross-border payment landscape now has two architectures, two governance models, and two geopolitical sponsors — with no bridge between them. For the $238 billion cross-border payments market, the question is no longer whether settlement infrastructure can be modernized. It is whether modernization will produce interoperability or fragmentation. The data, as of September 2026, points toward fragmentation.

Sources & References

  1. Saudi Arabia exits China-backed mBridge cross-border currency platform — Business Standard, September 20, 2026
  2. Saudi Arabia exits China backed mBridge digital currency project — Crypto.news, September 20, 2026
  3. Saudi Arabia exits mBridge CBDC platform after BIS — Forex Crunch, September 21, 2026
  4. Cross-border payments platform Project mBridge processed $55.49B — PYMNTS.com
  5. China-Led CBDC Platform mBridge Tops $55 Billion — CoinTelegraph
  6. BIS cuts ties with controversial CBDC project mBridge — CryptoSlate, October 2024
  7. CIPS volumes rise as China expands payments infrastructure — FXC Intelligence, May 2026
  8. After mBridge and Agorá, multilateral CBDC interoperability is dead — Forbes, May 12, 2026
  9. CBDC fragmentation: mBridge vs Project Agorá split global payments — Informed Clearly
  10. Macau goes live on mBridge cross-border CBDC platform — Ledger Insights, June 2026
  11. Saudi Arabia exits China-led mBridge as Riyad Bank explores Ripple — Bitcoin Ethereum News
  12. SWIFT Payment Statistics 2026 — Axis Intelligence