The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) — the most consequential piece of crypto legislation in U.S. history — was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026, under Calendar No. 423, after clearing the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14. The bill needs 60 vo...
"The banks will not accept it." — Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) — the most consequential piece of crypto legislation in U.S. history — was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026, under Calendar No. 423, after clearing the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14. The bill needs 60 votes for Senate passage and faces a narrowing window before the August recess. Galaxy Research estimates 75% probability of passage in 2026, while prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket price the outcome between 50% and 73%.
The bill would codify the SEC-CFTC joint classification of 16 digital assets as "digital commodities" — a taxonomy issued March 17, 2026, in a 68-page interpretive guidance document — and hand the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over spot markets valued at approximately $2.5 trillion. It would also establish a compromise on stablecoin rewards that has ignited a public battle between the banking industry and crypto-native firms, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon accusing the sector of wanting "all the benefits of banking with none of the responsibilities."
The crypto industry has deployed $271 million through PACs led by FairShake toward the 2026 midterms, according to DL News, while the banking lobby has escalated direct opposition. The outcome will determine whether digital asset markets operate under a unified federal framework or remain in the enforcement-era patchwork that has governed the sector since inception.
The CLARITY Act has passed every procedural gate it has faced so far. The House approved H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025, in a bipartisan vote of 294-134. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced a companion measure — the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act — in January 2026. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill on May 14, 2026, by a 15-9 vote. All 13 Republican committee members voted in favor, joined by Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego (AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (MD).
The bill was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026. Senate Majority Leader has not announced a floor debate date. Approximately eight weeks of legislative calendar remain before the Senate's August recess, according to CoinDesk analysis. The White House has set July 4 as its target for a presidential signature, according to CryptoTimes.
The 60-vote threshold for cloture means seven Democratic senators must cross the aisle, assuming all 53 Republicans vote yes. Several Democrats have publicly indicated they are withholding support until unresolved provisions — particularly around ethics and law enforcement — are addressed.
The CLARITY Act establishes a three-category taxonomy for digital assets, codifying the joint SEC-CFTC interpretive guidance issued March 17, 2026:
Digital Commodities. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified 16 tokens as digital commodities in a 68-page guidance document: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Stellar (XLM), Tezos (XTZ), and Aptos (APT). The "digital commodity" designation explicitly means these assets are not securities, according to the guidance. The CFTC would receive exclusive jurisdiction over spot markets for these assets.
Investment Contract Assets. The SEC retains authority over tokens sold as part of investment contracts. Issuers are subject to disclosure and registration requirements during capital raises.
Permitted Payment Stablecoins. A third category with joint SEC-CFTC oversight. Stablecoins are subject to specific restrictions on yield offerings — the provision that has triggered the most intense lobbying on both sides.
The bill replaces the SEC's April 2019 "Framework for Investment Contract Analysis" with a five-tier classification system: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities.
The CLARITY Act's stablecoin provision, inserted after months of White House-facilitated negotiations between Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, has become the bill's most contentious element.
The compromise, first published in the bill text on May 1, 2026, according to CoinDesk, prohibits crypto firms from offering yield on stablecoin deposits if that yield is the "functional or economic equivalent" to bank deposit interest. Passive yield on dollar-pegged tokens is banned. Activity-based rewards tied to payments and transfers are permitted.
The distinction matters: a crypto exchange cannot offer 4% APY on idle USDC balances, but can offer cashback rewards on stablecoin payments — functionally similar to credit card rewards rather than savings account interest. This line, drawn in statutory language, attempts to prevent crypto firms from becoming de facto banks while preserving incentive structures the industry considers fundamental to user acquisition.
Coinbase, Circle, and crypto trade groups immediately endorsed the compromise, according to CoinDesk. The American Bankers Association and JPMorgan have argued the distinction is cosmetic and that any rewards mechanism will eventually function as deposit competition without deposit insurance protections.
The intensity of opposition from traditional finance is without precedent in crypto legislative history. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon publicly criticized Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong over the bill's stablecoin provisions on May 29, according to Fortune, predicting the system would "eventually blow up" if adopted as written. According to CNN, Dimon accused crypto firms of seeking banking privileges while avoiding banking-level consumer protections.
Armstrong responded that federal market structure clarity would benefit traditional banking institutions alongside crypto firms.
The financial stakes are significant. The crypto industry has deployed $271 million through FairShake and affiliated PACs for the 2026 midterm elections, according to DL News. Of that total, approximately 40% has gone to Republican candidates, 3% to Democrats, and the remainder to non-partisan candidates, according to CoinDesk. Primary backers include Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz. Circle, Consensys, Kraken, and the Winklevoss twins are also among major donors.
Coinbase alone has spent $1.07 million on direct lobbying in 2026 through Q1, according to OpenSecrets.
The banking industry's opposition is driven by a specific economic concern: stablecoin issuers collectively hold reserves that generate float income — interest earned on Treasury securities and money market instruments backing stablecoin supply. Activity-based rewards, banks argue, are simply a pass-through of that float income by another name, functionally equivalent to deposit interest without FDIC insurance requirements.
The CLARITY Act would hand the CFTC exclusive authority over digital commodity spot markets — a category encompassing 16 classified tokens with a combined market capitalization that has fluctuated between $2.5 trillion and $3.6 trillion over the past year. This represents a massive expansion for an agency that has historically governed only derivatives markets.
The bill addresses capacity concerns through two mechanisms, according to the section-by-section analysis published by the Senate Banking Committee:
Joint SEC-CFTC rulemakings required by the bill — including the binding definition of "digital commodity" — must be completed before regulatory authority takes effect. The timeline for these rulemakings is not specified in the bill text, creating potential implementation lag.
The largest unresolved issue heading to the Senate floor is the absence of ethics language. During the Banking Committee markup, Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) introduced an amendment that would have barred senior government officials from holding certain crypto business interests. The amendment failed 11-13, according to reporting from CoinDesk's liveblog of the markup.
The ethics question is politically charged. Multiple Democratic senators have publicly stated that the provision's absence — in the context of elected officials with known crypto holdings — is a condition for their opposition. Given the need for seven Democratic crossover votes, the ethics provision represents a potential dealbreaker.
Republican leadership has indicated willingness to address the issue through floor amendments rather than sending the bill back to committee. Whether a floor amendment can thread the needle — satisfying Democratic concerns without alienating Republican votes — remains uncertain.
Galaxy Digital launched institutional OTC prediction markets trading on June 2, 2026, executing a $10 million trade with crypto-focused hedge fund Arca tied to the outcome of the CLARITY Act, according to Unchained Crypto and CoinDesk. Galaxy Research puts the probability of passage in 2026 at 75%, with a projected signing date during the week of August 3.
Kalshi and Polymarket traders have priced the passage probability between 50% and 73% over the past month. The spread reflects uncertainty around the Democratic vote count and the ethics provision resolution.
The existence of liquid prediction markets on the bill's outcome represents a new dynamic in legislative politics. Institutional capital is now directly pricing regulatory risk, creating a feedback loop between market positioning and lobbying intensity.
The CLARITY Act's path to passage is procedurally clear but politically uncertain. The bill has survived every committee vote it has faced, passing the House 294-134 and the Senate Banking Committee 15-9. The remaining obstacle is arithmetic: assembling 60 Senate votes within an eight-week window while resolving an ethics dispute that neither party can afford to get wrong during a midterm election year.
The stablecoin rewards provision has surfaced a fundamental tension that extends beyond this bill. The question of whether crypto firms can offer financial incentives that compete with bank deposit interest — without deposit insurance, capital requirements, or Community Reinvestment Act obligations — will define the boundary between crypto and banking for the foreseeable future.
If the bill passes, the CFTC inherits regulatory authority over a market segment larger than most commodity classes it currently oversees. If it fails, the digital asset industry returns to the enforcement-era patchwork that both sides of the aisle acknowledge is insufficient — but for different reasons.
The data suggests passage is more likely than not. But the margin is thin, the calendar is short, and the banking lobby has made clear it intends to extract concessions at every remaining stage.