Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on October 25 for the first time in over a month, touching $79,146 during thin weekend liquidity as a cascade of leveraged long liquidations amplified the selloff. Over a 24-hour window, $837 million in crypto futures positions were forcibly closed, according to CoinGla...
"The macro environment is dicey. I think the market may need to experience a downturn before seeing further gains." — Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on October 25 for the first time in over a month, touching $79,146 during thin weekend liquidity as a cascade of leveraged long liquidations amplified the selloff. Over a 24-hour window, $837 million in crypto futures positions were forcibly closed, according to CoinGlass, with long positions accounting for 82.8% of the total. More than 227,000 traders were affected.
The move extended a deterioration that began on October 22, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.5 million in net outflows — the largest single-day redemption since June 2025. Over two consecutive sessions, cumulative ETF outflows reached $773 million, reversing a three-day inflow streak of $1.08 billion and pushing October's net flows back into negative territory at approximately -$175 million.
Three concurrent macro pressures converged: escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that pushed Brent crude above $117 per barrel, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hold at the October 28 FOMC meeting with potential tightening in December, and a broader risk-off rotation out of equities and digital assets. The total crypto market capitalization declined 4.06% in 24 hours to $2.72 trillion.
Bitcoin traded at approximately $83,000 on October 22 before a multi-day selloff pushed the price to $79,146 by Saturday, October 25 — a decline of roughly 4.6% from the session's open. The breach of $80,000 triggered a liquidation cascade that compounded selling pressure during a period of reduced weekend liquidity.
According to CoinGlass, $837.12 million in cryptocurrency futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours ending early October 25. The breakdown:
| Asset | Liquidated | Long % | |-------|-----------|--------| | Bitcoin (BTC) | $250 million | ~93% | | Ethereum (ETH) | $231 million | ~93% | | Solana (SOL) | $33.06 million | N/A | | XRP | $10.03 million | N/A | | Other altcoins | $313 million | N/A |
Long positions accounted for $693 million of the total, or 82.8%. In the most intense four-hour window on October 24 — ending at 1:00 p.m. ET — $404 million in long positions were unwound, with $436 million total across all directions, per CoinGlass data cited by The Block.
Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 within hours, trading near $80,800 by Sunday morning. The recovery suggests the move was driven by leveraged position clearing rather than a fundamental shift in spot demand, though the bounce lacked conviction.
The selloff was preceded by two consecutive days of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $773.4 million.
October 22 (Thursday): $635.5 million in net outflows — the largest single-day redemption since late June 2025. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $254.1 million in outflows, followed by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) at $217.5 million, ARK 21Shares' ARKB at $109.4 million, Grayscale's GBTC at $29.5 million, and Bitwise's BITB at $27.4 million.
October 23 (Friday): An additional $137.9 million in net outflows. IBIT again led with $110.3 million, while FBTC lost $31.8 million.
These two sessions erased gains from the prior three trading days, which had seen $1.07 billion in net inflows. For the week, Bitcoin ETFs still finished marginally positive at +$301 million, ending a two-week outflow streak. However, October's cumulative flows sit at approximately -$175 million in net outflows.
The timing of the Thursday outflow is notable. CoinGlass data indicates the average cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF holdings sits near $81,000-$82,000. As BTC traded through this range, redemptions accelerated — consistent with cost-basis-triggered selling behavior observed in previous drawdown episodes.
Three macro factors converged to create a hostile environment for risk assets during the week of October 20.
U.S.-Iran Tensions: Reports from The New York Times indicated that Washington and Tel Aviv had finalized plans for strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, with a potential timeline after the November midterm elections. The U.S. began evacuating embassy personnel and military dependents from bases across the Middle East. Brent crude surged from $105 to $117.42 per barrel between October 20 and October 23 — its highest since June 2022 — before settling near $111. WTI crude approached $99 per barrel. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil supply, were flagged as at-risk.
Federal Reserve Expectations: The FOMC meets October 27-28. Fixed-income markets currently price an 80% probability of rates held steady at 3.75%-4.00%. The more consequential signal is the December 9 meeting, where markets now project a rate hike. Rising energy costs feed into inflation expectations, narrowing the Fed's room to ease.
Equity Market Weakness: The Nasdaq fell during the week following a technology sector selloff on October 23, as investors rotated out of risk assets broadly. Bitcoin's correlation with tech equities has remained elevated through 2026.
The most widely noted positioning shift came from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of his family office Maelstrom. On October 24, Hayes disclosed he had exited all directional crypto positions, reversing long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum that he had publicly discussed just nine days prior.
On-chain analysts tracked $26 million in sales from wallets associated with Maelstrom, including approximately 8,000 ETH ($19 million), 14 million ENA ($3 million), and 323,000 UNI ($2 million). Hayes cited "dicey" macroeconomic conditions and suggested the market needed further downside before the next sustained move higher.
The timing — one day before Bitcoin broke $80,000 — drew attention across crypto trading communities. While Maelstrom's $26 million is small relative to daily crypto trading volumes, Hayes's public exits often coincide with broader sentiment shifts among leveraged traders who follow his macro commentary.
The damage extended well beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum fell to $2,282, with a major long position flagged as nearing liquidation on multiple exchanges. ETH declined 3-4% over 24 hours. Ethereum ETF outflows had already been running negative, with $110.6 million exiting on October 22 alone.
Solana traded near $104, down 65% from its all-time high of approximately $296. Spot Solana ETFs recorded a nine-session withdrawal streak heading into the weekend, with $6.7 million in net outflows on October 19.
XRP fell 4% to $1.28, now 65% below its $3.65 all-time high and down 14% for October.
Bitcoin dominance held at 59.7%, per CoinMarketCap. The crypto Fear & Greed Index read 53 (Neutral) on October 25, down from recent readings in the low 60s but notably not in "Fear" territory, suggesting the liquidation cascade was concentrated among leveraged traders rather than reflecting broad retail panic.
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,210 on October 6, 2025. At $80,430 on October 25, 2026, the asset trades approximately 36% below that level. It has not reclaimed $100,000 since early August 2026.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization of $2.72 trillion is similarly compressed from its peak. Year-to-date, Bitcoin opened 2026 near $95,000 and is now down roughly 15%.
These distance-from-peak metrics matter because they frame the current sell-off within a broader multi-month drawdown rather than a sudden reversal from highs. The leveraged liquidation event accelerated an already-existing downtrend, but it did not initiate one.
The October 24-25 liquidation event was the largest single-day wipeout of 2026 by several measures. It was driven primarily by the forced closure of leveraged long positions as Bitcoin breached the $80,000 level — an area that coincides with the estimated cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings.
The macro trigger was not crypto-native. Rising oil prices, U.S.-Iran military escalation, and pre-FOMC positioning created the conditions for a risk-off rotation. Crypto absorbed disproportionate damage because of the leverage embedded in the derivatives market, where long-to-short ratios had tilted heavily in favor of buyers.
Whether this constitutes a tradeable bottom depends on the outcome of two events: the October 28 FOMC statement and the trajectory of Middle East tensions. If the Fed signals a pause and geopolitical risk de-escalates, the sub-$80,000 wick could represent a liquidation flush. If either variable worsens, the $75,000 level — flagged by multiple analysts — becomes the next area of interest.
The data does not support a definitive directional call. The Fear & Greed Index at neutral, the rapid recovery above $80,000, and the absence of spot selling panic suggest the move was mechanical rather than fundamental. But the ETF outflows indicate institutional investors are actively reducing exposure, which limits the available fuel for a sustained recovery.