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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[DEEP DIVE] Ethereum Maps Seven Forks Through 2029 at Hong Kong

Zephyra|April 21, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin delivered a keynote at the Hong Kong Web3 Festival on April 20, 2026, outlining the protocol's most detailed technical roadmap to date. The plan calls for seven hard forks through 2029, a reduction in transaction finality from 16 minutes to under 12 seconds, a ...

"Ethereum is not meant to compete as a high-frequency trading platform… Ethereum aims to be a secure chain, a decentralized chain that will be online continuously." — Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum Co-Founder, Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2026

Executive Summary

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin delivered a keynote at the Hong Kong Web3 Festival on April 20, 2026, outlining the protocol's most detailed technical roadmap to date. The plan calls for seven hard forks through 2029, a reduction in transaction finality from 16 minutes to under 12 seconds, a gas limit increase from 60 million to 200 million, and full post-quantum cryptographic migration — all while the protocol trades at roughly $2,300, down more than 50% from its August 2025 peak near $5,000.

The speech arrived two days after the $292 million Kelp DAO bridge exploit drained 116,500 rsETH across 20 chains and triggered $8 billion in Aave TVL outflows. Buterin used the moment to defend Ethereum's design philosophy: security and verifiability over raw throughput. Meanwhile, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan used the same stage to announce two freshly granted stablecoin issuer licenses — to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial (a Standard Chartered–HKT–Animoca Brands joint venture) — signaling that the city's regulatory apparatus is moving from sandbox to production.

The convergence of a comprehensive protocol roadmap and an active regulatory rollout at a single four-day conference makes the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Festival a reference point for assessing both Ethereum's technical trajectory and Asia-Pacific crypto policy direction.

Table of Contents

  1. The Roadmap: Seven Forks Through 2029
  2. Glamsterdam: The Near-Term Overhaul
  3. Hegotá and the Anti-Censorship Push
  4. Quantum Resistance: The ETH2030 Program
  5. Finality: From 16 Minutes to Seconds
  6. Hong Kong's Regulatory Moves
  7. Economic Reality Check
  8. Key Takeaways
  9. Conclusion
  10. Sources & References

The Roadmap: Seven Forks Through 2029

The Ethereum Foundation's "Strawmap," published in February 2026, lays out seven incremental hard forks over approximately four years. The document — maintained at eth2030.com — represents the first attempt to give the community a multi-year, fork-by-fork timeline rather than the historically vague "phases" approach.

Two forks are confirmed for 2026: Glamsterdam (targeting H1) and Hegotá (targeting H2). The remaining five are projected through 2029 but lack confirmed dates. The Strawmap was developed by the Ethereum Foundation's Protocol Support Team and has been discussed across All Core Developer calls 229–234, covering the period from January 21 to April 9, 2026.

According to the Ethereum Foundation's Checkpoint #9 blog post (April 10, 2026), Glamsterdam's Q2 2026 launch "seems unlikely" given the complexity of its headline feature, Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS). The Foundation notes that ePBS has been "trickier than anticipated," requiring handling of partial blocks and two-party coordination that affects the entire protocol stack.

This cadence — biannual hard forks — represents a deliberate shift from slower, monolithic upgrades to smaller, more frequent changes. Whether the team can sustain this pace remains unproven.

Glamsterdam: The Near-Term Overhaul

Glamsterdam bundles up to 22 Ethereum Improvement Proposals focused on L1 scalability and architectural changes. The headline features:

Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS, EIP-7732): Splits the consensus block from the execution block, where a proposer and builder each handle their part instead of relying on the current centralized relay system. Today, 95% of Ethereum validators use MEV-Boost, an off-protocol relay infrastructure operated largely by Flashbots. ePBS aims to bring this function into the protocol itself, reducing trust assumptions.

Block-Level Access Lists (BALs, EIP-7928): Introduces a map within each block identifying which transactions affect specific accounts and storage slots. This enables parallel block processing across multiple CPU cores rather than sequential execution — what developers describe as addressing "the biggest bottleneck" in Ethereum's current architecture.

Gas Repricing (EIP-8007): Adjusts the cost of state storage operations to reflect actual hardware demands, reducing long-term database growth.

Maximum Contract Size Increase (EIP-7954): Prioritized following ecosystem developer feedback, this raises the limit on deployable contract bytecode.

The gas limit is targeted to increase from the current 60 million to 200 million over the course of 2026, though the Ethereum Foundation's official priority document from February 2026 references a more conservative interim target of "toward and beyond 100 million." Data blob capacity may also expand to 72 or more blobs per block, which would allow Layer 2 networks to process significantly higher throughput.

Hegotá and the Anti-Censorship Push

Hegotá, the second fork of 2026, fuses "Bogotá" (execution layer) with "Heze" (consensus layer), following Ethereum's convention of linking Devcon host cities with astronomical names.

FOCIL (EIP-7805): Selected as the consensus-layer headliner. Fork-Choice Inclusion Lists allow groups of validators to collaboratively ensure that certain transactions are included even if parts of the network are censoring. This directly addresses concerns about MEV-driven transaction censorship, which has affected an estimated 5–10% of Ethereum blocks at various points.

Verkle Trees: Front-runner for Hegotá's execution-layer focus. Verkle Trees replace the current Merkle Patricia Trie data structure with a more compact alternative, potentially reducing hardware requirements for node operators and enabling "stateless clients" that can verify blocks without storing the full state.

Account Abstraction (EIP-8141): Moved to Considered for Inclusion (CFI) status. This proposal enables native smart contract wallet support, which is a prerequisite for post-quantum signature algorithm compatibility and privacy protocol support.

Quantum Resistance: The ETH2030 Program

The most technically ambitious element of Buterin's speech was the quantum resistance migration. A Post-Quantum Security team was established in January 2026, operating out of a dedicated hub at pq.ethereum.org with more than 10 client teams running weekly post-quantum interoperability devnets.

The scale of the challenge is quantifiable. Current ECDSA signatures consume 64 bytes and cost approximately 3,000 gas to verify on-chain. Post-quantum alternatives — whether hash-based or lattice-based — require 2,000–3,000 bytes and approximately 200,000 gas per verification. That is a 30–47x increase in byte size and a 67x increase in gas cost.

The ETH2030 upgrade plan targets four cryptographic vulnerabilities:

  • BLS signatures (used in the consensus layer for validator attestations)
  • KZG commitments (used for data availability in blob transactions)
  • ECDSA account signatures (used for all user transaction signing)
  • Zero-knowledge proof systems (used in L2 rollup verification)

The proposed solution introduces six quantum-resistant signature schemes and 13 new EVM precompiles, with recursive STARK aggregation to manage the resulting verification overhead. According to the Ethereum Foundation, L1 protocol upgrades could be completed by 2029, with full execution-layer migration requiring additional time beyond that.

Buterin presented two parallel approaches: hash-based signatures (conservative, well-understood, larger size) and lattice-based signatures (newer, potentially more compact, less battle-tested). The protocol intends to support both.

Finality: From 16 Minutes to Seconds

Ethereum currently requires approximately 15–16 minutes for a transaction to reach finality — the point at which it cannot be reverted without destroying at least one-third of all staked ETH. The Strawmap targets reducing this to under 12 seconds through a progression:

  1. 3-Slot Finality (3SF): An intermediate step combining Bitcoin's longest-chain rule with Byzantine Fault Tolerance, providing 33% security certainty during network problems and resilience to 49% node failure rates.
  2. Single Slot Finality (SSF): The ultimate target, finalizing blocks within one slot (currently 12 seconds).
  3. Slot Time Reduction: A separate track reducing the slot clock itself from 12 seconds down through 8, 6, 4, and potentially 2 seconds, with each reduction gated by confidence in network safety.

The combination would produce finality times measured in single-digit seconds — a meaningful change for DeFi applications, bridges, and cross-chain settlement, where the current 16-minute window creates capital inefficiency and attack surface.

Hong Kong's Regulatory Moves

The Web3 Festival doubled as a policy platform. Financial Secretary Paul Chan's April 20 keynote contained several concrete announcements:

Stablecoin Licenses: On April 10, 2026, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) granted stablecoin issuer licenses under the Stablecoins Ordinance to HSBC Holdings and Anchorpoint Financial Limited — a joint venture between Standard Chartered, Hong Kong Telecommunications, and Animoca Brands. These were selected from 36 applicants. HSBC intends to launch a Hong Kong dollar–denominated stablecoin in the second half of 2026, fully backed by high-quality liquid assets in segregated accounts.

Tokenized Bonds: Hong Kong has issued over $2 billion in tokenized green and infrastructure bonds across multiple rounds, with issuances now regularized rather than treated as one-off experiments.

EnsembleTX: Launched by the HKMA in November 2025, this pilot program enables tokenized deposits in money market fund transactions and real-time liquidity management.

AI Governance: Chan announced a new "Committee on AI+ and Industry Development Strategy" examining the convergence of AI and Web3 in finance, with specific focus on cybersecurity, algorithmic bias, and autonomous system oversight.

The regulatory philosophy, articulated as "same activity, same risks, same regulation," represents Hong Kong's attempt to position itself between the restrictive approach of mainland China and the fractured, multi-agency U.S. framework. The fact that two systemically important banks — HSBC and Standard Chartered — secured the first licenses signals that Hong Kong is routing its stablecoin strategy through incumbent financial institutions rather than crypto-native entities.

Economic Reality Check

Ethereum's roadmap ambitions must be assessed against its current economic profile. At roughly $2,300 per ETH with a market capitalization of approximately $279 billion, the network generates an estimated $65 million in annual fee revenue — a figure that has declined as activity migrated to Layer 2 networks following the Dencun upgrade.

The Ethereum Foundation spent $134.5 million in 2024, more than double the network's fee revenue. The gap is funded by the Foundation's roughly $1 billion treasury, which includes ETH holdings. The Foundation completed a 70,000 ETH staking commitment in early 2026, shifting from ETH sales to protocol-native yield generation — an acknowledgment that its previous treasury strategy of selling ETH was politically untenable.

Post-Dencun, the network mints approximately 960,000 ETH annually to stakers while burning only about 40,000 ETH, producing net inflation of roughly 920,000 ETH per year (approximately 0.8%). This represents a reversal from the deflationary period that followed the Merge in 2022.

The seven-fork roadmap implies sustained engineering investment over four years. Delivering quantum resistance alone — with six new signature schemes and 13 precompiles — requires coordination across more than 10 client teams. The Ethereum Foundation's Checkpoint #9 report already acknowledges that even the first fork, Glamsterdam, faces delays.

Key Takeaways

  • Ethereum's Strawmap targets seven hard forks through 2029 — the most granular public roadmap the protocol has produced. Glamsterdam (H1 2026) and Hegotá (H2 2026) are confirmed; both face acknowledged delays.
  • Gas limit is planned to increase from 60M to 200M during 2026, with parallel execution (EIP-7928) and ePBS (EIP-7732) as the architectural foundations.
  • Quantum resistance requires replacing four cryptographic primitives (BLS, KZG, ECDSA, ZK proofs) with alternatives that cost 67x more gas per verification. The migration is led by a dedicated team running weekly interop devnets.
  • Transaction finality is targeted to drop from ~16 minutes to single-digit seconds through a phased approach combining 3-Slot Finality, Single Slot Finality, and slot time reduction.
  • Hong Kong issued its first two stablecoin licenses on April 10, 2026, to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial (Standard Chartered JV), selected from 36 applicants. Bank-issued HKD stablecoins are expected in H2 2026.
  • Hong Kong has regularized tokenized bond issuance, with over $2 billion in tokenized green and infrastructure bonds issued to date.
  • Ethereum's annualized fee revenue of ~$65M remains a fraction of Foundation spending ($134.5M in 2024), with the network running at 0.8% annual inflation.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2026 produced two parallel narratives. On the technical side, Ethereum laid out the most detailed protocol roadmap in its history — one that, if executed, would fundamentally alter the network's performance, security model, and cryptographic foundations over four years. On the regulatory side, Hong Kong moved from policy statements to production licenses, routing its stablecoin infrastructure through systemically important banks rather than crypto-native entities.

Both narratives face the same test: execution. Ethereum's Glamsterdam fork is already behind its aspirational timeline. Hong Kong's licensed stablecoins have yet to launch. The gap between announcement and delivery will determine whether this week's festival becomes a historical inflection point or another entry in the long archive of ambitious plans.

The data suggests caution. Ethereum's economic model — $65 million in fee revenue against $134.5 million in Foundation spending and 0.8% annual inflation — does not yet generate the self-sustaining cash flows that would independently justify a four-year, seven-fork engineering program. The roadmap is funded by treasury drawdown and staking yield, not organic protocol revenue.

What Buterin presented in Hong Kong is not a shipping schedule. It is a statement of intent — technically detailed, economically aspirational, and delivered in the shadow of a $292 million exploit that demonstrated exactly why the upgrades are needed.

Sources & References

  1. Vitalik's full speech at the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival — PANews — Complete transcript of Buterin's April 20, 2026 keynote
  2. Vitalik Buterin on Ethereum's Roadmap: zkEVM, Quantum Resistance and 10-Second Finality — Coinpedia — Technical breakdown of roadmap announcements
  3. Checkpoint #9: Apr 2026 — Ethereum Foundation Blog — Official progress report covering ACD calls 229–234
  4. Two Days After a $292M DeFi Hack, Vitalik Buterin Defends Ethereum's Design in Hong Kong — Crypto Economy — Coverage of speech in context of Kelp DAO exploit
  5. Ethereum in 2026: Glamsterdam and Hegota forks, L1 scaling and more — Cointelegraph/TradingView — Technical analysis of EIPs and fork content
  6. Speech by FS at Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2026 — Hong Kong Government — Full text of Financial Secretary Paul Chan's speech
  7. HKMA Granting of stablecoin issuer licences — HKMA — Official announcement of HSBC and Anchorpoint licenses
  8. HSBC, StanChart Get First Hong Kong Stablecoin Issuer Licenses — Bloomberg — Bloomberg coverage of license grants
  9. Ethereum Foundation Outlines 2026 Protocol Priorities, Eyes 100M Gas Limit — Blockhead — Foundation priorities and gas limit targets
  10. Ethereum Foundation launches post-quantum security hub — CoinDesk — Details on pq.ethereum.org and client team coordination
  11. Ethereum devs target finality in seconds by 2029 — CoinDesk — Strawmap details and finality targets
  12. Ethereum Foundation researchers publish 'strawmap' outlining seven forks through 2029 — The Block — Overview of the seven-fork plan