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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[DEEP DIVE] Crypto's IPO Pipeline Meets Wall Street's Pricing Reality

Zephyra|May 2, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Eleven crypto firms raised approximately $14.6 billion through IPOs in 2025, up from $310 million across four listings in 2024. The 47-fold increase represented the digital asset sector's largest-ever engagement with public equity markets. BitGo opened 2026 by raising $212.8 million on the NYSE i...

"What they want at the end of the day is what Citadel and Jane Street have, or JPMorgan has, and they want it accessible to them." — Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO, Kraken

Executive Summary

Eleven crypto firms raised approximately $14.6 billion through IPOs in 2025, up from $310 million across four listings in 2024. The 47-fold increase represented the digital asset sector's largest-ever engagement with public equity markets. BitGo opened 2026 by raising $212.8 million on the NYSE in January. Kraken confirmed a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in April 2026. Consensys, Ledger, and Grayscale are each at varying stages of preparation with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Barclays, and Jefferies serving as underwriters.

Yet the post-IPO record is mixed. Circle (CRCL), the sector's marquee 2025 listing at $31 per share, trades at approximately $95 as of May 1, 2026 — a significant gain from IPO price but down 68% from its 52-week high of $299. eToro (ETOR), which listed at $52 in May 2025, trades at $35. BitGo (BTGO), the first crypto IPO of 2026, has fallen from its $18 IPO price to $10.27. The data shows a sector that can access public markets but struggles to sustain post-listing valuations amid broader crypto price volatility.

Table of Contents

  1. The 2025 IPO Wave: From Drought to Flood
  2. Post-IPO Performance: The Pricing Gap
  3. The 2026 Pipeline: Who's Filing, Who's Waiting
  4. Circle: The Benchmark Listing
  5. Kraken: Fed Access, Frozen IPO
  6. Infrastructure vs. Exchange: What Public Markets Will Pay For
  7. Key Takeaways
  8. Conclusion
  9. Sources & References

The 2025 IPO Wave: From Drought to Flood

Between 2022 and 2024, crypto IPO activity was near zero. The collapse of FTX in November 2022 and the SEC's enforcement-first posture under Chair Gary Gensler effectively closed the public listing window for digital asset firms. In all of 2024, four crypto-related companies listed, raising a combined $310 million, according to PitchBook data.

The environment shifted in 2025. Gensler resigned as SEC Chair in January 2025. Paul Atkins, his successor, signaled a pivot from enforcement to regulatory clarity. The passage of the GENIUS Act provided legislative scaffolding for stablecoins. Bitcoin spot ETFs, approved in January 2024, accumulated over $100 billion in assets by early 2026, demonstrating sustained institutional demand.

The result: at least 11 crypto IPOs in 2025, raising roughly $14.6 billion globally. Circle led the wave, listing on the NYSE in June 2025 at $31 per share. Bullish, the exchange backed by Peter Thiel and PayPal co-founders, debuted in August with an 89% first-day gain. eToro listed on the Nasdaq in May 2025. Gemini followed later in the year.

The 2025 cohort established a template: compliance-focused firms with recurring revenue streams — not speculative token projects — could access public equity markets.

Post-IPO Performance: The Pricing Gap

The listing surge obscured a harder truth: most 2025 crypto IPOs have traded below their listing prices within months.

Circle (CRCL): IPO at $31 per share in June 2025. First-day close at $82.84, a 167% gain. Shares reached $299 at 52-week high. As of May 1, 2026, trading at approximately $95 — still a 3x return from IPO price but down 68% from peak. Market capitalization: approximately $24.6 billion.

eToro (ETOR): Listed at $52 per share in May 2025. Trading at $35.04 as of early May 2026, a 33% decline from IPO price. Shares hit post-IPO lows in October 2025.

BitGo (BTGO): First crypto IPO of 2026. Listed at $18 per share on January 22, 2026, raising $212.8 million. Closed first day at $18.49. As of mid-April 2026, shares trade at $10.27, a 43% decline. Market capitalization: $1.19 billion, down from approximately $2.1 billion at listing.

Coinbase (COIN): The longest-tenured crypto public equity. Hit an all-time high of $444.65 in July 2025, then fell to $139.36 by February 2026 — a 69% drawdown in seven months. Trading at approximately $187 as of late April 2026. Full-year 2025 revenue: $7.2 billion. Trading volume: $5.2 trillion, up 156% year-over-year.

The pattern is consistent: strong first-day performance followed by extended drawdowns that correlate with Bitcoin's own price declines. BTC fell roughly 40% from its October 2025 record, and crypto equities tracked that move with amplified volatility.

The 2026 Pipeline: Who's Filing, Who's Waiting

Despite the mixed performance of 2025 listings, the 2026 pipeline remains substantial. At least five major crypto firms are at various stages of the IPO process.

| Company | Status | Estimated Valuation | Underwriters | Notes | |---------|--------|-------------------|--------------|-------| | Kraken | S-1 filed (confidential), paused | $13.3B | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley | Fed master account secured March 2026 | | Grayscale | S-1 filed (public), Nov 2025 | $30-33B | TBD | $35B AUM, ticker GRAY | | Consensys | Pre-filing, working with banks | ~$7B (last private round) | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs | MetaMask, Infura operator | | Ledger | Exploring, no S-1 yet | ~$4B | Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Jefferies | 7M+ devices sold, $100B+ assets secured | | Chainalysis | No announced plans | ~$8.6B (Series F) | N/A | $7.25 Forge price, April 2026 |

The aggregate implied valuation of the pipeline exceeds $60 billion. Whether these listings execute depends on two variables: Bitcoin price recovery and public market appetite for crypto equities, both of which remain uncertain.

Circle: The Benchmark Listing

Circle's June 2025 IPO set the standard for crypto public offerings. The USDC issuer priced at $31, above its $27-$28 target range, suggesting strong institutional demand.

The company's financials explain the interest. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $2.7 billion, up 64% year-over-year. Reserve income — interest earned on assets backing USDC — accounted for 99.1% of total revenue. USDC circulation hit $75.3 billion at year-end, a 72% increase. On-chain USDC transaction volume surged 384% to $33.3 trillion.

Q4 2025 results exceeded expectations: EPS of $0.43 versus a $0.35 consensus estimate. Revenue of $770 million with adjusted EBITDA of $167 million, a 412% year-over-year increase. According to Bloomberg, shares surged following the results release.

Circle's model differs from exchange-dependent crypto firms. Its revenue is a direct function of USDC supply outstanding multiplied by prevailing interest rates. This makes it more akin to a money market fund operator than a trading venue — a distinction public market investors appear to value, given the stock's resilience relative to peers.

The risk is equally clear: if interest rates decline significantly, Circle's reserve income compresses. The company is scheduled to report Q1 2026 results on May 11, 2026.

Kraken: Fed Access, Frozen IPO

Kraken's IPO trajectory illustrates the tension between operational milestones and market timing.

On March 4, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved a limited-purpose master account for Kraken Financial, the company's Wyoming-chartered banking subsidiary. The approval — the first of its kind for a crypto-native firm — grants Kraken direct access to Fedwire, the Federal Reserve's core dollar settlement system. The move eliminates dependence on intermediary correspondent banks for dollar settlement.

The operational significance is substantial. Direct Fed access allows faster deposits and withdrawals for institutional clients and positions Kraken alongside traditional banks in the U.S. payment infrastructure.

Co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed the company's confidential S-1 filing at the Semafor World Economy Summit on April 14, 2026. However, Kraken paused its IPO plans in March, according to CoinDesk, citing adverse market conditions. Bitcoin had declined approximately 40% from its October 2025 record by that point.

Deutsche Börse Group invested $200 million in Kraken in exchange for a 1.5% fully diluted stake, implying a $13.3 billion valuation — a 34% decline from the $20 billion valuation established in Kraken's November 2025 fundraise.

Sethi's public stance: the company will not "race to the door" to complete a listing. "If you are planning to run your company for 3, 5, 10, or even 20 years, then these things don't really matter," he stated, according to Yahoo Finance.

Infrastructure vs. Exchange: What Public Markets Will Pay For

The 2025-2026 IPO data reveals a clear investor preference hierarchy. Firms providing infrastructure — custody, stablecoin issuance, compliance tooling — command more durable valuations than those reliant on trading volume.

Circle derives revenue from stablecoin reserves, a function of USDC supply and interest rates. This is recurring, predictable income with minimal correlation to trading activity.

Grayscale, which manages approximately $35 billion in digital assets and has identified a $365 billion total addressable market, monetizes through management fees on crypto investment products — also recurring.

BitGo, a custody provider, pitched itself as "the plumbing of the crypto world," according to CoinDesk. Despite the positioning, shares have declined 43% from their IPO price, suggesting investors remain skeptical of custody-only business models at current valuations.

Exchange-dependent firms — Coinbase, eToro, and eventually Kraken — face the cyclicality problem. Coinbase's $7.2 billion in 2025 revenue was powered by $5.2 trillion in trading volume, but the stock's 69% drawdown from its July 2025 high demonstrates the pricing penalty public markets apply to volume-dependent businesses.

The economic value framework is instructive here: public markets are repricing crypto firms based on where they sit in the value chain. Revenue that flows from recurring infrastructure services commands higher valuation multiples than revenue derived from speculative trading volume. This mirrors the broader technology sector, where platform and infrastructure businesses (AWS, Azure) trade at premium multiples relative to transaction-fee businesses.

Key Takeaways

  • $14.6 billion raised across 11 crypto IPOs in 2025, a 47x increase from 2024's $310 million across four listings.
  • Post-IPO performance is negative for most 2025-2026 listings. eToro trades 33% below IPO price. BitGo is down 43%. Circle is the outlier at approximately 3x IPO price but 68% below its 52-week high.
  • The 2026 pipeline exceeds $60 billion in aggregate implied valuation across Kraken ($13.3B), Grayscale ($30-33B), Consensys (~$7B), Ledger (~$4B), and others.
  • Kraken has unique positioning as the only crypto-native firm with direct Federal Reserve access via Fedwire, but has paused its IPO amid market conditions.
  • Recurring revenue models outperform in public markets. Circle's stablecoin reserve income model has proven more durable than exchange-dependent business models.
  • Bitcoin price is the macro variable. A 40% BTC drawdown from October 2025 highs drove concurrent declines across all listed crypto equities.

Conclusion

The crypto sector's relationship with public equity markets has entered a new phase. The question is no longer whether crypto firms can list — 2025 answered that definitively — but whether they can sustain valuations after listing.

The data through early May 2026 suggests the market is applying standard public equity logic to crypto firms: recurring revenue, regulatory compliance, and infrastructure positioning are rewarded; trading-volume dependence and speculative narratives are penalized. Kraken's pause, despite securing the most significant banking credential in crypto history, demonstrates that even strong operational fundamentals cannot override unfavorable market conditions.

The pipeline remains large. Grayscale at $30-33 billion and Kraken at $13.3 billion represent potential listings of a scale the crypto sector has not previously attempted. Whether they execute in 2026 depends less on their readiness than on Bitcoin holding above levels that sustain public market confidence.

For the sector, the stakes extend beyond individual listings. A successful 2026 IPO cohort would validate crypto as a permanent fixture of public equity markets. A wave of withdrawals or further post-listing declines would confirm that the sector's public market moment was a function of the 2024-2025 cycle rather than a structural shift.

The data is not yet conclusive either way.

Sources & References

  1. CNBC: Crypto exchange Kraken confirms it has confidentially filed for an IPO — Kraken S-1 filing confirmation, April 2026
  2. PitchBook: Crypto companies finally cracked the IPO ceiling in 2025 — 2025 IPO data, capital raised
  3. CoinDesk: BitGo stock rises in NYSE debut — BitGo IPO performance, January 2026
  4. Bloomberg: Circle Surges the Most Since IPO After Results Top Estimates — Circle Q4 2025 earnings
  5. Yahoo Finance: Kraken boss Arjun Sethi says company won't 'race to the door' — Sethi IPO comments
  6. CoinDesk: Kraken becomes first crypto company to secure Fed master account — Fed master account, March 2026
  7. CoinDesk: Ledger said to seek $4 billion IPO in New York — Ledger IPO plans, January 2026
  8. The Block: Grayscale seeks NYSE debut — Grayscale S-1 filing
  9. DL News: Six blockbuster crypto IPOs to watch in 2026 — 2026 IPO pipeline overview
  10. CoinDesk: Consensys plans public debut, taps JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs — Consensys IPO preparation
  11. The Block: Crypto M&As and IPOs surged in 2025 — 2025 M&A and IPO activity
  12. Yahoo Finance: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) — Circle stock price data