Bitcoin's decline to $59,100 on June 25, 2026, pushed 10.83 million BTC into unrealized loss — the highest figure ever recorded. The metric surpasses the 10.6 million BTC peak reached during the November 2022 capitulation, when prices bottomed at $15,479. Long-term holders (coins held 155 days) ...
"The less aggressive bull market of 2025 sets the stage for a more moderate bear market in 2026." — Vetle Lunde, Head of Research, K33 Research
Bitcoin's decline to $59,100 on June 25, 2026, pushed 10.83 million BTC into unrealized loss — the highest figure ever recorded. The metric surpasses the 10.6 million BTC peak reached during the November 2022 capitulation, when prices bottomed at $15,479. Long-term holders (coins held >155 days) now control a record 14.8 million BTC, approximately 75% of circulating supply, with 5.58 million of those coins underwater — the second-highest long-term holder loss reading on record behind March 2020.
The on-chain data presents a paradox. Record supply in loss typically signals late-stage bear markets, yet the current drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,272 stands at roughly 52% — far shallower than the 73–78% peak-to-trough declines seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. The divergence between historically extreme loss metrics and a comparatively moderate price decline reflects a market structurally different from prior cycles: higher average cost bases, institutional ETF participation, and persistent negative funding rates have compressed volatility while spreading unrealized losses across a broader holder base.
Two research firms are at odds over what comes next. K33 Research argues $60,000 marked the bear market floor in February 2026, citing the mildest cycle drawdown in Bitcoin history and 81 consecutive days of negative funding rates that have capped speculative excess. 10x Research counters that three converging signals — global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and Bitcoin's seasonal patterns — point to a $55,000 bottom between late August and October 2026.
On June 25, 2026, Bitcoin's price dropped to $59,100, according to CoinDesk data. At that level, 10.83 million BTC — roughly 54% of the approximately 20 million coins in circulation — sat in unrealized loss. This figure surpasses the previous record of 10.78 million BTC set in early June 2026, and eclipses the 10.6 million BTC peak recorded during the 2022 bear market bottom.
The progression has been steady. Four months ago, supply in loss stood at 9.8 million BTC. It climbed to 10.5 million by late May, crossed 10.78 million in the first week of June, and reached its current record on June 25. Each new low in price has pushed incrementally more coins below their acquisition cost.
What makes this reading structurally distinct from 2022: the price is $59,100, not $15,479. The absolute dollar value of unrealized losses is multiples higher. An average coin in loss today was acquired at a far higher cost basis than during prior cycles, reflecting the entry of institutional capital and ETF buyers through 2024 and 2025.
Multiple on-chain valuation metrics have converged near levels historically associated with bear market floors.
MVRV Ratio: The Market Value to Realized Value ratio stood at 1.2 as of June 22, 2026. An MVRV below 1.0 indicates the network is trading below its aggregate cost basis — a condition seen only at deep cycle bottoms. At 1.2, Bitcoin sits slightly above its realized value, indicating a stressed but not fully capitulated market. For comparison, the 2022 bottom registered MVRV readings below 0.8.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): NUPL fell to 0.20, down from a 30-day average of 0.25. This places network profitability in the "Hope/Fear" zone — a transitional band between capitulation and early recovery. During the 2022 bottom, NUPL reached approximately -0.15.
MVRV Z-Score: The Z-score declined to 0.5, indicating spot valuation is approaching the aggregate cost basis of the network. A Z-score below 0 has historically aligned with generational buying opportunities. The current reading suggests the market is under pressure but has not reached the extreme undervaluation seen in prior capitulation events.
Fear & Greed Index: The aggregate sentiment gauge hit 11 on June 3, 2026, and registered 18 during FOMC week — the lowest FOMC-week reading on record, according to Alternative.me data. Readings below 20 have historically preceded multi-month recovery periods, though the indicator measures sentiment rather than fundamentals.
Bitcoin's 200-week moving average stood at $62,457 on June 24, 2026, according to chart data from Bitbo. With BTC trading near $59,100–$62,700 in late June, the price has been oscillating around this level.
The 200-week MA has served as a reliable floor in every prior bear market cycle:
| Cycle | 200-Week MA at Bottom | Price at Bottom | Held as Support? | |-------|----------------------|-----------------|------------------| | 2015 | ~$230 | $164 | Briefly breached, recovered | | 2018–19 | ~$3,150 | $3,122 | Tested and held | | 2020 (COVID) | ~$5,400 | $3,850 | Briefly breached, recovered within weeks | | 2022 | ~$22,000 | $15,479 | Breached for ~2 months | | 2026 | ~$62,457 | $59,100 | Currently testing |
According to analysis from The Defiant, Bitcoin broke below its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2022 when a strong U.S. jobs report repriced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, noted on social media that proximity to the 200-week MA has historically signaled favorable long-term entry conditions.
Long-term holders (LTH) — defined as addresses holding BTC for at least 155 days — now control 14.8 million BTC, a record, according to Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk. Some sources place the figure at 15.8 million based on slightly different classification windows.
Of these long-term holdings, 5.58 million BTC sit at unrealized losses — the second-highest LTH loss reading ever, behind only the March 2020 COVID crash. Approximately 37% of long-term held coins are underwater.
Despite the losses, net LTH accumulation has continued. According to CoinDesk analysis from May 13, 2026, Bitcoin's available (liquid) supply has been shrinking as long-term hoarding hit a record of 4 million BTC added to illiquid wallets over the prior 12 months.
However, the picture is not uniformly bullish. CNBC reported on June 3 that some high-conviction holders began selling as prices hit new lows, and CryptoQuant noted on May 29 that "record holder supply hides a buyer drought" — accumulation has continued, but new demand has not replaced exiting capital.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced two record-setting outflow streaks in 2026, according to TFTC data:
The drivers, per multiple sources: rising U.S. Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5–3.75% under Chair Kevin Warsh, a reaccelerating CPI print on May 12, S&P 500 all-time highs above 7,568 drawing capital into AI and semiconductor equities, and U.S.–Iran tensions triggering broad risk-off positioning.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen has stated that ETF outflows, not corporate selling, are the primary driver of current downside pressure.
| Metric | 2022 Bear Market | 2026 Bear Market (Current) | |--------|-----------------|---------------------------| | All-Time High | $69,000 (Nov 2021) | $126,272 (Oct 2025) | | Cycle Low | $15,479 (Nov 2022) | $59,100 (Jun 2026, so far) | | Peak-to-Trough Drawdown | -77.6% | -53.2% (so far) | | Max Supply in Loss | 10.6M BTC | 10.83M BTC (record) | | MVRV at Low | <0.8 | 1.2 | | NUPL at Low | -0.15 | 0.20 | | Fear & Greed Index Low | ~6 | 11 | | 200-Week MA Breach Duration | ~2 months | Currently testing | | ETF Market | Did not exist | $58.72B cumulative inflows; outflows accelerating | | Dominant Catalyst | Terra/LUNA collapse, FTX fraud | AI equity rotation, Fed hawkishness, ETF redemptions |
The comparison reveals a structurally different bear market. The 2022 cycle was driven by endogenous crypto failures (Terra/LUNA, FTX, 3AC). The 2026 drawdown is driven by exogenous macro forces: capital rotation to AI equities, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risk. Supply-in-loss has reached record levels despite a drawdown roughly half the depth of 2022, reflecting a dramatically higher aggregate cost basis across the network.
K33 Research (base case: $60,000 was the bottom)
K33's Vetle Lunde argues the February 2026 low near $60,000 represented the bear market's maximum drawdown. The thesis rests on three pillars: (1) the less aggressive 2025 bull market produced a less aggressive bear market; (2) 30-day average funding rates stayed negative for 81 consecutive days, nearing the longest stretch on record, indicating traders have been persistently short and capping speculative excess; and (3) Bitcoin's behavior has diverged from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 patterns where aggressive rallies toward the 200-day MA preceded sharp reversals. K33 projects consolidation within $60,000–$75,000 with "slow grind dynamics rather than a sharp capitulation event."
10x Research (base case: $55,000 bottom in Aug–Oct 2026)
Markus Thielen targets $55,000 as the cycle low, with the bottom window between late August and October 2026. Three indicators converge on this timeline: global liquidity trends, the macro calendar (particularly Federal Reserve decisions), and Bitcoin's seasonal tendencies. Thielen cites U.S. dollar strength under a hawkish Fed, ongoing ETF outflows running into the billions, and the possibility that the Fed's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. Despite the near-term call, Thielen's longer-term targets include $140,000–$142,000 and a possible $200,000 scenario, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and a liquidity reversal.
The $5,000 gap between these two forecasts — $60,000 floor vs. $55,000 floor — is narrow by historical crypto standards but represents a roughly 8% difference in potential further downside from current levels.
The data presents a bear market that defies simple historical comparison. Record supply in loss coexists with a drawdown that, by Bitcoin's standards, is moderate. On-chain valuation metrics sit in a stressed but not capitulated zone. Long-term holders are accumulating even as they absorb record unrealized losses, while new buyer demand has dried up.
The structural presence of ETFs — absent in all prior cycles — has changed the capital flow dynamics. ETF-driven outflows, rather than the crypto-native contagion events of 2022, are the primary downside force. This substitutes endogenous risk (exchange failures, protocol collapses) with exogenous macro sensitivity (Federal Reserve policy, equity market rotation, geopolitics).
Whether the bottom is at $60,000 (K33) or $55,000 (10x Research), both calls imply a bear market substantially shallower than prior cycles. The on-chain data neither confirms capitulation nor rules it out. What it does show is a market where the cost of conviction has never been higher in absolute terms, and where the line between institutional and native crypto capital flows has become the dominant variable. The resolution depends less on crypto-specific catalysts and more on the Federal Reserve's rate path and the durability of the AI equity trade that is currently absorbing risk capital.