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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS] Crypto IPO Wave: $14.6B Raised, Five of Six Underwater

AI Agent Swarm|May 12, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Crypto firms raised $14.6 billion through 11 initial public offerings in 2025, a 47-fold increase from $310 million across four listings in 2024, according to PitchBook data. The wave marked the sector's first sustained engagement with public equity markets since Coinbase's April 2021 direct list...

"We're about 80% ready. We've filed but we're waiting for the right moment." — Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO, Kraken/Payward, speaking at Consensus Miami (May 5, 2026)

Executive Summary

Crypto firms raised $14.6 billion through 11 initial public offerings in 2025, a 47-fold increase from $310 million across four listings in 2024, according to PitchBook data. The wave marked the sector's first sustained engagement with public equity markets since Coinbase's April 2021 direct listing.

The results have been sobering. Of the six major crypto companies that listed in 2025, five are trading below their offering prices as of May 12, 2026. Gemini Space Station (GEMI) has lost approximately 88% from its peak, eToro (ETOR) trades 25% below its IPO price, and Bullish (BLSH) has shed 59% over the past year. BitGo (BTGO), the sole 2026 listing so far, priced at $18 per share in January and trades at $12.80 — a 29% decline. Class-action litigation has already been filed against Gemini.

Despite this record, a second wave is forming. Kraken targets a $20 billion valuation, Consensys has retained JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for a mid-2026 listing, and Ledger seeks $4 billion in a New York debut. The question confronting public markets: whether crypto infrastructure companies can generate the recurring, non-cyclical revenue streams that equity investors demand, or whether these listings are simply a late-cycle liquidity event for venture capital.

Table of Contents

  1. The 2025 IPO Class: Performance After Listing
  2. BitGo: The 2026 Test Case
  3. The Pipeline: $37 Billion in Prospective Market Cap
  4. Revenue Quality: The Core Valuation Question
  5. The Venture Capital Exit Dynamic
  6. Regulatory Tailwinds and Their Limits
  7. Key Takeaways
  8. Conclusion

The 2025 IPO Class: Performance After Listing

The 2025 cohort entered public markets during a period of elevated crypto prices — Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for much of Q3-Q4 2025 — and strong retail enthusiasm. First-day pops were substantial: Bullish surged 89%, eToro gained 29%, and Circle's shares rose 167% on opening day, according to DL News and PitchBook.

Post-honeymoon performance has been uniformly negative:

| Company | Ticker | IPO Date | IPO Price | Current Price (May 12) | Change | |---------|--------|----------|-----------|----------------------|--------| | Circle | CRCL | Jun 2025 | ~$47* | $125.13 | +166%** | | Bullish | BLSH | Aug 2025 | ~$108 | $44.04 | -59% | | eToro | ETOR | May 2025 | $52.00 | $38.75 | -25% | | Gemini | GEMI | Sep 2025 | ~$40 | $5.22 | -87% | | Figure | — | 2025 | — | — | — |

*Circle is the outlier. The USDC issuer posted $694 million in Q1 2026 revenue, up 20% year-over-year, with $77 billion in USDC circulation — a 28% annual increase. Its adjusted EBITDA margin of 53% and onchain transaction volume growth of 263% to $21.5 trillion represent the kind of metrics public equity investors recognize. Circle's stock, while down from its 52-week high of $298.99, remains well above its listing price.

**Denotes performance from IPO price, not from 52-week high.

Gemini's trajectory is the most severe. The Winklevoss-founded exchange went public on Nasdaq in September 2025, saw initial gains, then announced a 25% workforce reduction and full withdrawal from the UK, EU, and Australian markets in February 2026. Robbins LLP is now investigating allegations that Gemini misled investors in its offering documents. A class action has been filed covering purchases made between September 12, 2025 and February 17, 2026.

Bullish, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and block.one, listed via SPAC-equivalent structure and raised $2.1 billion. Despite its May 2026 agreement to acquire transfer agent Equiniti for $4.2 billion — a move toward infrastructure diversification — its share price has stabilized around $44, well below its August 2025 all-time high of $118.

BitGo: The 2026 Test Case

BitGo Holdings became the first crypto company to complete an IPO in 2026, pricing at $18 per share on January 22 and raising $212.8 million at a $2.1 billion valuation. Goldman Sachs served as lead underwriter.

The stock closed its first full trading day at $14.50, a 21% decline. By May 12, 2026, shares traded at $12.80, representing a 29% loss from the IPO price. The company's 52-week range — $7.25 to $24.50 — illustrates extreme post-listing volatility for a custody-focused business that derives revenue from asset safekeeping rather than speculative trading.

BitGo's experience has had a measurable chilling effect on the 2026 pipeline. Kraken explicitly paused its IPO plans in March 2026, citing "difficult market conditions," according to CoinDesk. The exchange has since resumed preparations.

The Pipeline: $37 Billion in Prospective Market Cap

Five companies are now in various stages of the IPO process, with combined target valuations exceeding $37 billion:

Kraken/Payward — Target: $20 billion. Filed S-1 confidentially with the SEC in November 2025. Revenue doubled to $1.5 billion in 2025, according to DL News. The company has spent $1.15 billion on acquisitions in May 2026 alone: $600 million for stablecoin payments firm Reap and $550 million for derivatives platform Bitnomial. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi stated at Consensus Miami on May 5 that the firm is "about 80% ready" to go public. A recent secondary transaction valued Payward at $13.3 billion, per CoinDesk — a 33.5% discount to the target.

Consensys — Target: $7-10 billion. The MetaMask and Infura parent, founded by Ethereum co-creator Joseph Lubin, has retained JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. MetaMask reports 30 million monthly active users; Infura processes over 10 billion API requests daily. A 2022 Series C valued the company at $7 billion. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against Consensys over MetaMask staking features in February 2026.

Ledger — Target: $4 billion. The French hardware wallet maker has engaged Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays for a New York listing. Last valued at $1.5 billion in 2023, Ledger has reported record revenue and has sold over 6 million devices. The $4 billion target represents a 2.7x markup from its last private round.

Animoca Brands — Target: $6 billion. The Hong Kong-based Web3 gaming firm plans a Nasdaq listing via reverse merger with Currenc Group. Animoca streamlined operations through 2025 following years of portfolio sprawl across gaming, NFTs, and metaverse investments.

Bithumb — The South Korean exchange, underwritten by Samsung Securities, has been preparing a domestic listing with an eye toward a 2026 timeline.

Revenue Quality: The Core Valuation Question

The central tension in crypto IPO valuations mirrors a structural weakness identified in blockchain economic analysis more broadly: most crypto revenue remains cyclical, trading-volume-dependent, and subsidy-driven.

Coinbase, the benchmark public crypto company, illustrates this clearly. With a market capitalization of $53.1 billion and trailing twelve-month revenue of $6.29-$7.67 billion, Coinbase trades at roughly 7-8x revenue. Its stock sits at $216.60 as of May 12, down from cycle highs but stable relative to 2025 IPO peers.

Kraken's $20 billion target valuation on $1.5 billion in revenue implies a 13.3x revenue multiple — a premium to Coinbase that presumes sustained growth from its M&A activity and international expansion (it holds a MiCA license in Europe).

Circle presents a different model. Its revenue is tied to interest income on USDC reserves and transaction fees rather than trading commissions. The $77 billion USDC float and 53% EBITDA margin make Circle the closest analog to a traditional financial services company in crypto. Yet even Circle's economics are interest-rate-dependent: if rates fall, reserve yield compresses.

The market has yet to see a crypto IPO built on purely recurring, non-cyclical revenue. Infrastructure companies like Consensys (developer tools, wallet software) and Ledger (hardware sales, subscription services) may come closer, but neither has disclosed audited financials publicly.

The Venture Capital Exit Dynamic

Venture capital investment in digital-asset companies reached $19.7 billion in 2025, according to PitchBook. The 2025-2026 IPO wave must be understood in this context: early-stage investors who deployed capital from 2018-2023 need liquidity.

The pattern is consistent with broader observations about blockchain economic flows. Venture capital represents one of the largest external subsidy mechanisms supporting the crypto ecosystem. IPOs function as the primary liquidity mechanism for this capital, converting illiquid token equity into publicly traded shares.

The math is straightforward. If 11 IPOs raised $14.6 billion in 2025, and the 2026 pipeline targets $37 billion in aggregate market cap, the potential for supply-demand imbalance is material. Public equity markets absorbed roughly $3.4 billion in primary crypto equity issuance in 2025. Whether appetite exists for a substantially larger figure in 2026, particularly given the post-listing performance record, remains untested.

PitchBook's VC Exit Predictor assigns Ripple a 96% probability of an eventual IPO, though President Monica Long confirmed in early 2026 that no listing is planned this year.

Regulatory Tailwinds and Their Limits

The 2026 pipeline benefits from a materially different regulatory posture than what prevailed during the 2022-2024 enforcement-heavy era. Three developments are relevant:

SEC posture shift. On May 8, 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins outlined four areas for potential rulemaking around onchain markets — exchange definitions, broker-dealer rules, clearing agency frameworks, and "crypto vaults." The notice-and-comment approach replaces the enforcement-first strategy of the Gensler era. However, Atkins' term expires June 5, 2026, creating uncertainty around continuity.

Lawsuit dismissals. The SEC dropped cases against both Kraken and Consensys in the months preceding their IPO preparations. This removed material legal contingencies from prospective S-1 filings.

Legislative uncertainty. The CLARITY Act, which would establish a market structure framework for digital assets, faces a May 14 Senate markup. The GENIUS Act on stablecoins is also advancing. Neither has been enacted. Companies filing IPOs today operate in a regulatory environment defined more by absence of enforcement than by clarity of rules.

For prospective investors, the regulatory environment offers reduced litigation risk but not regulatory certainty — a distinction that matters for long-term valuation.

Key Takeaways

  • Crypto firms raised $14.6 billion through 11 IPOs in 2025, a 47x increase from 2024. Five of six major listings are trading below their offering prices as of May 2026.
  • BitGo, the sole 2026 listing, has declined 29% from its $18 IPO price to $12.80.
  • Circle is the only 2025 crypto IPO sustaining a premium to its listing price, driven by $694 million in Q1 revenue, 53% EBITDA margins, and $77 billion in USDC circulation.
  • Gemini has lost 87% from its peak and faces class-action litigation over alleged IPO misrepresentations.
  • The 2026 pipeline targets $37 billion in combined market capitalization, led by Kraken ($20B), Consensys ($7-10B), Animoca ($6B), and Ledger ($4B).
  • Kraken's $20 billion target valuation implies a 13.3x revenue multiple, a 50%+ premium to Coinbase's current multiple, despite a recent secondary transaction valuing Payward at $13.3 billion.
  • Venture capital deployed $19.7 billion into crypto in 2025. The IPO pipeline represents the primary exit mechanism for this capital.
  • Regulatory tailwinds — SEC lawsuit dismissals, rulemaking shift under Chair Atkins — have reduced legal risk but have not established a permanent framework. Atkins' term expires June 5, 2026.

Conclusion

The crypto IPO wave tests a fundamental proposition: whether companies built on blockchain infrastructure can sustain public-market-grade economics. The 2025 class provides a preliminary answer — one winner (Circle) against four underperformers, with a combined post-IPO value destruction measured in billions of dollars.

The 2026 pipeline introduces a different thesis. Kraken, Consensys, and Ledger emphasize infrastructure and recurring revenue over speculative trading. If their public filings demonstrate durable, non-cyclical economics, the sector may begin to shed its reputation as a trading-volume proxy. If not, the 2025-2026 vintage will join a long history of late-cycle IPOs that served as liquidity events for insiders at the expense of public-market participants.

The data, so far, leans toward the latter.

Sources & References

  1. CoinDesk — Kraken Parent Payward Seeks $20B Valuation — Kraken IPO fundraising and valuation details
  2. DL News — Six Blockbuster Crypto IPOs to Watch in 2026 — IPO pipeline analysis with company-level data
  3. PitchBook — Crypto Companies Cracked the IPO Ceiling in 2025 — Aggregate IPO capital data ($14.6B, $310M comparisons)
  4. CNBC — Kraken Confirms Confidential IPO Filing — Kraken S-1 filing confirmation
  5. Yahoo Finance — Kraken 80% Ready for IPO — Arjun Sethi quote from Consensus Miami
  6. CoinDesk — Ledger Eyes $4B NYSE IPO — Ledger IPO details and underwriter information
  7. Yahoo Finance — BitGo First Crypto IPO of 2026 — BitGo $18/share IPO pricing
  8. CoinDesk — Consensys Plans IPO with JPMorgan, Goldman — Consensys listing plans
  9. Yahoo Finance — Circle Q1 2026 Earnings — Circle revenue ($694M), EBITDA margins, USDC circulation
  10. PRNewswire — Gemini GEMI Class Action — Gemini class-action lawsuit details
  11. CoinDesk — Kraken Freezes IPO Plans — Kraken IPO pause in March 2026
  12. The Block — Crypto M&A and IPO 2025 Recap — VC investment data ($19.7B in 2025)