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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS] BTC Treasury Shakeout: Strategy Holds 66%, Copycats Crack

Zephyra|April 13, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Public companies collectively hold 1.16 million BTC — over 5.5% of total supply — but the corporate bitcoin treasury model is fracturing. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) now controls 65% of all publicly held corporate bitcoin. The remaining 84 treasury companies are split between those trading at persistent...

"The premium era is over. We're entering a phase where only disciplined structures and real business execution are going to survive." — John Fakhoury, Managing Partner, Stacking Sats

Executive Summary

Public companies collectively hold 1.16 million BTC — over 5.5% of total supply — but the corporate bitcoin treasury model is fracturing. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) now controls 65% of all publicly held corporate bitcoin. The remaining 84 treasury companies are split between those trading at persistent NAV discounts and those liquidating holdings outright. In Q1 2026, non-Strategy treasury firms purchased a combined 1,000 BTC over a trailing 30-day window, a 99% decline from the August 2025 peak. Their share of total corporate purchases fell from 95% in October 2024 to 2%.

The data shows a market bifurcating into a single dominant accumulator, a handful of well-capitalized challengers, and a long tail of firms whose treasury strategies have become liabilities. Approximately 40% of publicly traded bitcoin treasuries now trade below their net asset value, according to The Block's treasury tracker. MARA Holdings sold $1.1 billion in BTC to retire debt and pivot to AI. Riot Platforms divested 3,778 BTC in Q1. Bhutan liquidated 70% of its sovereign stack. The "infinite money glitch" thesis — that perpetual NAV premiums enable perpetual dilution-funded accumulation — is being tested by a 24% Q1 price drawdown and rising funding costs.

Table of Contents

  1. Market Structure: One Buyer to Rule Them All
  2. Strategy's Capital Machine: From Equity to Preferred
  3. The Challenger Tier: Metaplanet and Twenty One
  4. The Liquidation Tier: Sellers, Pivoters, and Exits
  5. NAV Premium Collapse: 40% Below Water
  6. Structural Risks: Dividends, Dilution, and Drawdowns
  7. Key Takeaways
  8. Conclusion
  9. Sources & References

Market Structure: One Buyer to Rule Them All

As of April 13, 2026, bitcoin trades near $71,189. Public companies hold approximately 1,164,800 BTC worth $82.9 billion at current prices, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. When sovereign and government holdings are included, the figure rises to approximately 1,801,097 BTC across 164 institutions, representing 8.58% of bitcoin's 21 million fixed supply, per CoinGecko data.

Strategy Inc. holds 766,970 BTC — roughly 65.9% of total public company holdings. The concentration ratio has increased throughout Q1 2026 as Strategy continued buying while most peers sold or held flat. Between April 1 and April 5 alone, Strategy added 4,871 BTC for $330 million at an average cost of $67,718 per coin. Between April 6 and April 12, it acquired another 13,927 BTC for $1.0 billion, funded primarily through STRC preferred stock sales.

The structural reality: one company now accounts for the vast majority of net corporate bitcoin demand. CryptoQuant data shows non-Strategy treasury companies purchased a combined 1,000 BTC over the most recent 30-day period — down from peaks exceeding 100,000 BTC monthly during the 2024-2025 accumulation frenzy.

Strategy's Capital Machine: From Equity to Preferred

Strategy's 21/21 Plan, announced in late 2024, targeted $42 billion in capital raises — $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in fixed-income securities — to fund bitcoin accumulation through 2027. The company has since expanded this to a 42/42 framework, doubling its ambition.

The funding mix has shifted materially in 2026. In mid-March, issuance from Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock series reached $1.18 billion, surpassing $396 million from common stock sales. This marked the first period in which preferred stock became the primary funding tool for bitcoin purchases. The STRC pays 11.50% annual dividends — up from 9.00% at inception in mid-2025 — payable monthly in cash.

Annual dividend obligations on Strategy's preferred stock stack now exceed $1 billion, with outstanding preferred shares surpassing $10 billion in face value. The company has disclosed a $1.4 billion cash reserve covering approximately 21 months of preferred dividend payments, providing a buffer against forced bitcoin sales during drawdowns.

Strategy's mNAV (enterprise value to bitcoin NAV multiple) stands at approximately 1.20x. Its stock is down approximately 9.5% year-to-date versus bitcoin's 22% decline, suggesting the market still assigns value to Strategy's capital structure and accumulation capability above the underlying BTC. However, MSTR shares have fallen 52% from their 2025 highs.

The economics are straightforward: as long as Strategy trades above 1.0x mNAV, issuing equity or preferred shares to buy bitcoin is accretive to existing shareholders on a per-share BTC basis. Below 1.0x, every issuance destroys value.

The Challenger Tier: Metaplanet and Twenty One

Two firms have established themselves as credible second-tier accumulators.

Metaplanet Inc. (3350.T) — Japan's first publicly listed bitcoin treasury company — acquired 5,075 BTC during Q1 2026 at an average price of $79,898 per coin, bringing total holdings to 40,177 BTC. The position was acquired for a cumulative $3.59 billion at an average cost basis of $89,328 per BTC. At current prices near $71,000, Metaplanet sits on approximately $899 million in unrealized losses — a 25.1% drawdown from cost.

Despite this, Metaplanet trades at an mNAV of approximately 1.37x, enabling continued accretive issuance. The company's stated target is 100,000 BTC by year-end 2026, and 210,000 BTC (roughly 1% of total supply) by end of 2027. Metaplanet's stock has risen over 3,000% since it began buying bitcoin in April 2024 but is approximately flat year-to-date in 2026.

Twenty One Capital (XXI) — backed by Tether ($1.6 billion contribution), Bitfinex ($600 million), and SoftBank ($900 million) — began trading on the NYSE in December 2025 with 43,514 BTC, making it the third-largest public corporate holder at debut. Led by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, the firm positions itself as a "bitcoin-native" public vehicle. However, XXI shares dropped 20% on their NYSE debut despite a rising bitcoin price, signaling market skepticism about the premium justified by a passive treasury structure.

The Liquidation Tier: Sellers, Pivoters, and Exits

The opposite end of the spectrum is populated by firms actively reducing bitcoin exposure.

MARA Holdings (MARA): Sold 15,133 BTC between March 4 and March 25 for approximately $1.1 billion. Used roughly $1.0 billion to repurchase convertible debt at a discount, cutting outstanding convertible notes from $3.3 billion to $2.3 billion — a 30% reduction. MARA cut 15% of its workforce and announced a pivot toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. Through a partnership with Starwood Capital, MARA aims to convert its 1.9 GW power footprint into AI and compute campuses targeting 1 GW of IT capacity. Remaining holdings: approximately 38,689 BTC, down from 53,822 at end of February. Further sales are planned.

Riot Platforms: Divested 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026 for approximately $289.5 million, with additional April transfers suggesting continued selling. The company has cited debt repayment and liquidity needs.

Bhutan: The Himalayan kingdom sold approximately 70% of its roughly 13,000 BTC sovereign stack accumulated through hydropower-backed mining, reducing holdings to 3,954 BTC worth approximately $281 million. Mining inflows appear to have ceased; no major new deposits have been recorded in over a year. Total 2026 dispositions as of March 10 exceeded $42.5 million.

Empery Digital: Sold 370 BTC at an average of $66,632, generating $24.7 million. Used proceeds to fully repay its term loan, releasing approximately 1,800 BTC previously held as collateral.

NAV Premium Collapse: 40% Below Water

The core financial logic of the bitcoin treasury model rests on NAV premiums. When a company trades above 1.0x its bitcoin NAV, it can issue shares, buy more bitcoin, and increase BTC per share — creating a reflexive loop of value creation. When premiums compress below 1.0x, the loop reverses: issuance becomes dilutive, and the company's stock becomes a worse vehicle for bitcoin exposure than direct ownership.

According to Keyrock research, bitcoin treasury companies trade at an aggregate 73% premium to underlying BTC NAV. However, this headline figure is skewed by Strategy and a small number of large-cap names. Approximately 40% of publicly traded bitcoin treasuries now trade below NAV, per The Block data. The dispersion is wide: Strategy at 1.20x, Metaplanet at 1.37x, and a long tail of smaller firms at 0.6x-0.9x.

Stock performance tells the story. From January 1, 2026 through mid-April: Strategy shares are down approximately 52% from their 2025 highs. Semler Scientific — a healthcare firm that announced a bitcoin treasury pivot in May 2025 and saw its stock rise fivefold — is down 74% year-to-date. Across the sector, the correlation between bitcoin price declines and treasury stock declines has been amplified by leverage and funding cost pressures.

Structural Risks: Dividends, Dilution, and Drawdowns

Three structural risks define the current environment.

Dividend Escalation: Strategy's STRC preferred stock dividend has risen from 9.00% to 11.50% in under a year. With over $10 billion in preferred stock outstanding, annual dividend obligations now exceed $1 billion. This creates a fixed cash outflow that must be serviced regardless of bitcoin's price trajectory. The $1.4 billion cash reserve provides an approximately 21-month runway, but an extended bear market could force preferred share buybacks, additional dilution, or — in the extreme — bitcoin sales.

Dilution Dynamics: Strategy sold 10,028,363 STRC shares in a single week (April 6-12) to fund its $1 billion bitcoin purchase. The conversion terms between preferred and common equity create layered dilution potential. As long as BTC appreciation exceeds funding costs, this is accretive. In a flat or declining BTC environment, the math inverts.

Drawdown Amplification: Bitcoin fell approximately 24% in Q1 2026 — its steepest first-quarter decline since 2018. Strategy disclosed $14.46 billion in unrealized losses on its bitcoin holdings for the quarter. The combination of price declines, rising funding costs, and compressed NAV premiums creates a reinforcing negative feedback loop for weaker treasury companies, several of which lack the capital structure discipline to survive an extended downturn.

Key Takeaways

  • Public companies hold 1.16 million BTC (5.5% of supply). Strategy alone holds 65.9% of that total — a concentration that continues to increase.
  • Non-Strategy corporate bitcoin purchases have collapsed 99% from August 2025 peaks, falling to approximately 1,000 BTC per 30-day period.
  • Approximately 40% of publicly traded bitcoin treasuries trade below their NAV, eliminating the reflexive premium loop that justified the strategy.
  • MARA sold $1.1 billion in BTC and is pivoting to AI infrastructure. Riot, Bhutan, and Empery are also net sellers.
  • Strategy's preferred stock dividend obligations now exceed $1 billion annually, creating fixed costs that must be serviced through all market conditions.
  • Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital represent the only scaled challengers, with mNAV premiums above 1.0x, but Metaplanet carries $899 million in unrealized losses on a cost basis of $89,328 per BTC.
  • The market has moved from a land grab phase to a survival-of-the-fittest phase where capital structure discipline, funding cost management, and operational execution determine survival.

Conclusion

The corporate bitcoin treasury thesis is not dead, but it is narrowing. The data points to a power-law distribution: Strategy operates in a category of one, with the capital structure, market access, and NAV premium to sustain its accumulation program through adversity. Metaplanet and Twenty One represent viable but unproven second-tier models. The remaining 80+ companies face a binary outcome: restructure their balance sheets and find sustainable funding, or liquidate holdings and exit the strategy.

The 73% aggregate NAV premium cited by Keyrock is misleading without understanding its distribution. For the 40% of firms trading below NAV, the bitcoin treasury model has become a trap — they cannot issue equity accretively, they face rising debt service costs, and their stocks underperform direct bitcoin exposure. The Q1 2026 drawdown exposed this fault line.

What emerges is a market structure where corporate bitcoin demand is effectively centralized in a single entity. Whether Strategy's $1 billion-plus annual dividend burden, its growing preferred stock stack, and its dependence on sustained NAV premiums constitute a resilient model or a fragile one will be determined by bitcoin's trajectory in the quarters ahead. The data does not provide a definitive answer. It does show that the copycat era is over, and the companies still standing in 12 months will be those that treated treasury management as a capital structure problem, not a marketing strategy.

Sources & References

  1. CoinDesk — "Why Strategy's Bitcoin Buying Isn't Moving the Market" — Analysis of MSTR market impact, April 7, 2026
  2. DL News — "Investors Scramble to Pick New Winners Among Smouldering Crypto Treasury Firms" — Premium era analysis and sector outlook
  3. CoinDesk — "The Bitcoin Treasury Boom Is Unwinding" — Riot, Bhutan, and corporate exit positions, April 2, 2026
  4. CoinDesk — "Bhutan Has Sold 70% of Its Bitcoin" — Sovereign selling analysis, April 11, 2026
  5. CryptoSlate — "Metaplanet Is the Only Bitcoin Treasury Surviving a Brutal Market Shift" — Metaplanet NAV and performance data
  6. Keyrock — "BTC Treasuries Uncovered: Premiums, Leverage, and Sustainability" — Aggregate NAV premium research and structural analysis
  7. Strategy.com — Bitcoin Purchases — Official MSTR purchase disclosures
  8. CoinDesk — "Strategy Lifts STRC Dividend to 11.5%" — Preferred stock dividend escalation, March 1, 2026
  9. 247WallSt — "MARA Sold 15,133 Bitcoins to Escape the Mining Trap" — MARA liquidation and AI pivot analysis, April 7, 2026
  10. Bitcoin Magazine — "Bitcoin Treasuries Are Cracking" — Sector-wide sell-off analysis
  11. BitcoinTreasuries.NET — Aggregate corporate BTC holdings data
  12. The Block — "Twenty One Shares Sink 20% in NYSE Debut" — XXI market debut performance
  13. CryptoQuant — "Bitcoin Treasury Companies Pull Back in 2026" — Purchase volume decline data
  14. VanEck — "Deconstructing Strategy (MSTR)" — Capital structure and mNAV analysis