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WEBTHREEPEDIA RESEARCH

[COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS] BTC Treasury Sector Splits as mNAV Premiums Collapse

Zephyra|July 15, 2026|BPF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Public companies now hold 1.26 million BTC — over 6% of Bitcoin's 21 million hard cap — valued at approximately $79 billion. In Q2 2026 alone, listed firms acquired 110,000 BTC, 1.8 times the total purchased across the previous two quarters. Yet those aggregate figures mask a structural fracture:...

"You do not sell your Bitcoin." — Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman, Strategy Inc. (2024)

Executive Summary

Public companies now hold 1.26 million BTC — over 6% of Bitcoin's 21 million hard cap — valued at approximately $79 billion. In Q2 2026 alone, listed firms acquired 110,000 BTC, 1.8 times the total purchased across the previous two quarters. Yet those aggregate figures mask a structural fracture: the corporate Bitcoin treasury sector has split into accumulators, liquidators, and a growing cohort of outright exits.

The divergence centers on a single metric — market net asset value (mNAV). Companies trading above 1.0x mNAV can issue equity to buy more Bitcoin accretively. Those below 1.0x cannot. Strategy Inc.'s mNAV peaked near 3.5x in late 2024; by spring 2026 it had compressed to approximately 1.16x and briefly dipped below 1.0 in June. That compression has severed the feedback loop that powered the sector's growth, splitting the field into winners and casualties.

Since October 2025, Bitcoin treasury firms have shed $62 billion in combined market capitalization, with total sector value falling from $134 billion to roughly $72 billion. At least five smaller treasury companies have dissolved or exited the strategy entirely during H1 2026.

Table of Contents

  1. The Accumulator Cohort
  2. The Liquidator Cohort
  3. The Exit Wave
  4. The mNAV Mechanism
  5. Supply Dynamics
  6. Structural Risks
  7. Key Takeaways
  8. Conclusion

The Accumulator Cohort

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) remains the dominant force in corporate Bitcoin accumulation. The firm purchased approximately 85,000 BTC in Q2 2026, accounting for roughly 80% of all public company Bitcoin acquisitions during the quarter. Total holdings stood at 843,775 BTC as of July 12, 2026, acquired at an average cost basis of $66,385 per coin, representing a total outlay of $33.1 billion, according to company filings.

Metaplanet Inc. (TSE: 3350), Japan's first publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company, has climbed to third place globally. The Tokyo-listed firm added 2,823 BTC on July 2, 2026, bringing total holdings to 43,000 BTC. Metaplanet reported a 2.8% BTC Yield in Q1 2026, a proprietary metric measuring bitcoin-per-share growth. However, the accumulation has not translated into share price stability: Metaplanet was removed from the S&P Japan Mid Cap 100 index and posted a $619 million net loss for fiscal 2025, driven largely by unrealized markdowns on its Bitcoin stack.

Twenty One Capital (NYSE: XXI), founded through a SPAC merger in April 2025, holds approximately 43,500 BTC. In May 2026, Tether purchased SoftBank's 26% stake in the company — worth approximately $679 million — consolidating control. Tether, which already held 45% prior to the deal, subsequently proposed merging XXI with Strike (a Bitcoin payments company) and Elektron Energy (a mining operation) to create a vertically integrated Bitcoin enterprise. CEO Jack Mallers continues to lead the combined entity.

Strive (NASDAQ: ASST), the asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, added 18 BTC between July 6-10, 2026, at an average price of $64,028, bringing total holdings to 19,900 BTC. Strive's treasury grew through a combination of direct purchases, preferred stock offerings, and the absorption of approximately 5,048 BTC from its Semler Scientific acquisition.

The Liquidator Cohort

Strategy's July sale marked a notable shift. Between June 29 and July 5, 2026, the firm sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million — its largest single disposal since initiating the treasury strategy in 2020, and only its third sale overall. The proceeds funded preferred-stock dividend obligations on its Digital Credit securities, according to Bloomberg. The sale directly contradicted Saylor's prior public stance that holders should never sell Bitcoin.

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) has been the most aggressive seller among major holders. The company sold 15,133 BTC in a single transaction between March 4-25, generating $1.1 billion at an average price of $76,626. Total Q1 2026 disposals reached approximately $1.5 billion. MARA's holdings have declined from a peak of 53,822 BTC at end-2025 to 35,303 BTC by early July — a net reduction of approximately 18,000 BTC, or 33.7%. The proceeds funded a $1.0 billion repurchase of zero-coupon convertible notes due 2030 and 2031.

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) sold 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026, generating $289.5 million at an average price of $76,626. An additional 500 BTC was sold in April for $39 million. Holdings fell to 15,680 BTC, down 18% from 19,223 BTC a year earlier. According to company filings, the capital funded expansion of its Corsicana, Texas AI data center — part of Riot's strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure services.

The Exit Wave

Smaller treasury companies have abandoned the strategy entirely during H1 2026, according to reporting by CryptoTimes and CoinDesk:

  • K Wave Media sold its remaining 88 BTC on July 1, 2026, to repay approximately $6 million in debt. Holdings fell to zero.
  • Genius Group liquidated its final 84 BTC in Q1 2026 to repay $8.5 million in debt. The company declared its Bitcoin treasury empty.
  • Bitdeer reduced holdings to just 31 BTC by March 2026, pivoting to AI cloud and infrastructure services.
  • Sequans Communications (NASDAQ: SQNS) sold portions of its holdings through May 2026 to redeem convertible debt from its 2025 financing round, effectively abandoning the treasury model.

These exits represent companies that entered the Bitcoin treasury trade late — often in 2024 or 2025 — without the scale or financing advantages that sustain larger operators.

The mNAV Mechanism

The metric that determines whether a Bitcoin treasury company can grow or must contract is mNAV — the ratio of a company's market capitalization to the dollar value of the Bitcoin it holds.

When mNAV exceeds 1.0, a company can issue new equity at a price above the per-share value of its Bitcoin. The proceeds buy additional BTC, increasing bitcoin-per-share — a process that is accretive to existing shareholders. This was the engine that powered Strategy's growth from 2020 through mid-2025, when its mNAV frequently traded between 2.0x and 3.5x.

By spring 2026, that premium had compressed across nearly the entire sector. Strategy's mNAV fell to approximately 1.16x and briefly dipped below 1.0 in June, according to CrowdFund Insider. At that level, equity issuance dilutes rather than accrets — the company would be selling shares worth more than the Bitcoin it could buy.

The compression reflects three factors: Bitcoin's price decline from its November 2024 highs, rising interest rates that increased the carry cost of Bitcoin-backed debt, and the availability of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which provide direct exposure without the structural overhead of a treasury company. According to CoinMarketCap analysis, the premium that made the model work has largely vanished for most participants.

Metaplanet has attempted to adapt by packaging income products — selling options against its Bitcoin stack to generate yield — rather than relying solely on share issuance. Whether this approach sustains a premium remains unproven.

Supply Dynamics

The scale of corporate accumulation is creating measurable supply-side effects. Year-to-date through early July 2026, public companies added a net 166,984 BTC to their reserves, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data. During the same period, Bitcoin miners produced approximately 81,153 BTC. Corporate demand is therefore running at more than twice new supply.

Total public company holdings now exceed 1.26 million BTC. At current prices near $65,000, that represents approximately $82 billion in Bitcoin held by listed firms — roughly 6% of Bitcoin's maximum supply. This concentration introduces reflexive risk: a forced seller of sufficient size could move the market against the entire cohort.

The concentration is extreme at the top. Strategy alone holds approximately 843,775 BTC — 67% of all public company Bitcoin holdings. The top three holders (Strategy, Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet) control roughly 74% of the sector's total Bitcoin.

Structural Risks

Debt servicing pressure. Strategy's $216 million Bitcoin sale to fund preferred dividends signals that obligations are beginning to shape asset allocation. MARA's $1.1 billion sale to retire convertible notes confirms this pattern. As Bitcoin prices decline, the ratio of fixed obligations to asset value worsens.

Concentration risk. With 67% of all corporate-held Bitcoin in a single entity, any forced liquidation by Strategy would have outsized market impact. At 843,775 BTC, a 10% forced sale would represent roughly 84,000 BTC — equivalent to approximately $5.5 billion at current prices.

ETF substitution. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024 created a more liquid, lower-cost vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure. Bitcoin treasury companies now compete with products that offer direct exposure without equity dilution risk, dividend obligations, or operational overhead.

Miner-to-AI pivot. Riot Platforms and Bitdeer are redirecting capital from Bitcoin accumulation to AI data center buildout. This reduces a natural source of Bitcoin demand (miner treasuries) while simultaneously creating selling pressure as holdings fund the transition.

Key Takeaways

  • Public companies hold 1.26 million BTC ($79 billion), exceeding 6% of Bitcoin's maximum supply. Strategy alone controls 67% of that total.
  • Q2 2026 saw 110,000 BTC in corporate acquisitions — but 80% came from a single buyer (Strategy).
  • mNAV compression has disabled the accretive equity issuance model for most treasury companies. Strategy's mNAV fell from 3.5x (2024) to 1.16x (spring 2026).
  • MARA sold 18,000 BTC net YTD (33.7% of holdings). Riot sold 4,278 BTC. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for dividends.
  • At least four smaller treasury companies exited entirely in H1 2026, liquidating holdings to repay debt.
  • The $62 billion in combined market cap losses since October 2025 demonstrates that treasury company equity amplifies Bitcoin downside more reliably than upside.
  • Corporate Bitcoin demand (166,984 BTC YTD) is running at more than 2x the rate of new miner supply (81,153 BTC).

Conclusion

The corporate Bitcoin treasury sector is undergoing its first genuine stress test. The model's core assumption — that equity markets will perpetually value these companies at a premium to their Bitcoin holdings — has not held. For the handful of firms with scale, brand recognition, and diversified financing (Strategy, Metaplanet, Twenty One Capital), the strategy remains viable but constrained. For the long tail of smaller entrants, the mNAV compression has transformed what was marketed as a one-way trade into a liquidity trap.

The sector's near-term trajectory depends on Bitcoin price action. A sustained move above $75,000 would restore mNAV premiums and reopen the equity issuance window. Continued range-bound trading near $65,000 will force more sales, more exits, and further consolidation. The ultimate irony of corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies may be that their collective accumulation of 6% of total supply creates the very concentration risk that undermines the decentralized store-of-value thesis on which they were built.

Sources & References

  1. Strategy Sells $216M in Bitcoin, Breaking Saylor's 'Never Sell' Creed — CryptoNews Australia, July 2026
  2. Strategy Sells $216 Million of Bitcoin as It Begins Overhaul — Bloomberg, July 6, 2026
  3. Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Splits as Corporate Holders Take Different Paths — Coinpedia, July 2026
  4. Bitcoin Treasury Firms Buy 110,000 BTC in Q2 2026 — KuCoin News, July 2026
  5. Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Holdings Reach 1.26 Million BTC After Record Q2 Buying — Tron Weekly, July 2026
  6. Bitcoin Treasury Firms Lose $62 Billion as Crypto Market Slide Deepens — Bloomberg, June 5, 2026
  7. Multiple Bitcoin Treasury Companies Exit Amid 2026 Market Pressures — CryptoTimes, July 2, 2026
  8. Metaplanet Adds 2,823 BTC, Hits 43,000 — TFTC, July 2026
  9. Tether Buys Out SoftBank Stake in Twenty One Capital — Blockhead, May 21, 2026
  10. MARA Holdings Announces $1.0 Billion Repurchase and Sale of 15,133 Bitcoin — MARA Holdings IR, March 2026
  11. Riot Platforms Sells 3,778 Bitcoin in Q1 2026 — Bitcoin.com News, Q1 2026
  12. Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies Losing Their Financing Edge in 2026? — CoinMarketCap Academy, 2026
  13. Digital Assets Treasury Firm Strategy Loses Bitcoin Premium as mNAV Drops Below 1 — CrowdFund Insider, June 2026
  14. Strive Adds 18 Bitcoin, Treasury Reaches 19,900 BTC — Bitcoin Magazine, July 2026